关键词: 质和量, 测度, 城市化水平, 空间分析, 云南省

Abstract: People's life can be improved and social and economic development in the districts can be promoted through urbanization with high quality and quantity. In order to measure scientifically the urbanization level in prefectures of Yunnan Province, the paper, based on the theory of urbanization quality and taking into consideration the geographic features of more mountains than flatland in Yunnan Province, applies the “vertical and horizontal” scatter degree method to improve land urbanization index and establish new urbanization evaluation system from the perspective of quantity and quality. Based on the 12-year urbanization level data of each research area, the thesis carries the construction of gray system prediction model of urbanization level in each research area, and then obtains and tests 12 models to predict the urbanization level of each region in 2025. After analyzing three years' (herein referring to 2006, 2017 and 2025) datum in prefectures of Yunnan Province in terms of urbanization level, time series and space, the paper draws conclusions are as follows 1) the holistic urbanization level of Yunnan Province is generally low in 2006, 2017 and 2025 when the urbanization level of Yunnan Province will be eventually improved; 2) from 2006 to 2017, the urbanization level of most of the study areas showed the characteristics of “decline-rise-decline”; 3) the central Yunnan urban agglomertaion is a high-high concentration area of urbanization; 4) Zhaotong,Wenshan and Pu'er are low-high concentration areas of urbanization; and 5) Diqing, Baoshan, Lincang and Xishuangbanna are low-low concentration areas of urbanization. In the end, measures are put forward.

Key words: quality and quantity measurement, urbanization level of prefectures, spatial analysis, “vertical and horizontal” scatter degree method;, Yunnan Province