Journal of Chuxiong Normal University ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 26-32.

• Mathematics • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Time Series Analysis and Prediction of Yunnan GDP Based on the ARIMA Model

ZHENG Wei, ZHANG Kun, GUAN Nanxing   

  1. School of Mathematics and Statistics,Chuxiong Normal University,Chuxiong,Yunnan Province 675000
  • Received:2019-12-16 Online:2020-05-20 Published:2020-12-28

Abstract: Using the data of Yunnan Province's GDP from 1993 to 2017,we use the sequence diagram and autocorrelation test diagram to test the stability of the data.According to the test results,we use the difference method to stabilize the non-stationary data.Then we establish the ARIMA model of time series before carrying out the test analysis.Finally,we forecast and estimate the regional GDP of Yunnan Province in the next 23 years according to the model result analysis.The results show that the model can predict the GDP of Yunnan Province in the next 23 years at a higher accuracy.

Key words: regional GDP, statistical test, time series analysis, ARIMA model

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