Application and Comparison of ARIMA Model and Holt Two Parameter Model in Population Forecast

Journal of Chuxiong Normal University ›› 2021, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 8-15.

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Application and Comparison of ARIMA Model and Holt Two Parameter Model in Population Forecast

GUO Jing, ZHANG Yinxiang

College of Mathematics, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, Yunnan Province 650500

Received:2020-07-23 Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-07-23

Abstract

Abstract: Taking the total population of Yunnan Province from 1973 to 2018 as an example, this paper establishes the Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model, the ARIMA model and the cubic polynomial model. The ARIMA (4,3,1) model is selected from the ARIMA model using the minimum AIC criterion and is compared with Holt's two-parameter exponential smoothing model and cubic polynomial model. After comparing the average error rate of the predicted value of the model with the fluctuation range of the residual, the ARIMA(4,3,1) model has a higher fitting accuracy and is suitable for predicting the total population in the short term. Based on this analysis, the total population of Yunnan Province was predicted for 8 periods.

Key words: ARIMA model, Holt two-parameter exponential smoothing model, cubic polynomial model, population forecasting, model comparison

CLC Number:

C924.257.4

GUO Jing, ZHANG Yinxiang. Application and Comparison of ARIMA Model and Holt Two Parameter Model in Population Forecast[J]. Journal of Chuxiong Normal University, 2021, 36(3): 8-15.

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Application and Comparison of ARIMA Model and Holt Two Parameter Model in Population Forecast

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